Collated information on the Coronavirus

The information here is taken from Johns Hopkins University and is updated daily.

Forecasts

Forecasts are provided for some selected locations. This is done by fitting a gompertz or logistic curve to the data; epidemics often follow a gompertz curve or logistic curve. No guarantee can be given that the course of the epidemic will follow the given curve especially as it is believed that there are a lot more cases than are reported here. But this is the data we have.

Update: the model has now been restricted to logistic and the number of peaks modelled essentially made anything we care to try. The parameters of the model for each country are shown after the table of statistics, making clear just what was done to get the fit. The $R^{2}$ value is measure of the fit's success.

Not all models are good, generally because the data contain departures from the usual 'logistic' shape. Failures will be noted where the data contain a sudden larger number of negative deaths or cases. Presumably these are corrections to past data.

"Forecast deaths" is simply the forecast final peak number of cases multiplied by the latest deaths per case. Mostly for comparison with government pronouncements. I'm not the only person doing this; it's not really right because on any given day the people dying and the people whose case has been confirmed are not the same people. But this is the data we've got.

"Last Day" is the day the model calculates there will be just one new case (or less). –- Timestamp: 2024-02-17T11:17:59.647

Results to 2023-03-09.

URLs for the timeline source data: - Confirmed - Deaths - Recovered

Links to each country's report:

Country Reports

World

StatusNumber
Population7,794,798,739
Confirmed676,570,149
Deaths6,881,802
Recovered0
Cases per head8.6798%
Deaths per 10,0008.83
Deaths per case1.0172%
Forecast peak686,043,193.452904 (558,200,058.54803 813,886,328.357779)
Forecast deaths6,978,158.033973 (5,677,788.60033 8,278,527.467616)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999999
Parameters:
ABC
1.3621774949769e8327.4569457.90263
3.188546396999e7462.6442813.83969
3.551822428432e7569.4151720.15323
245113.59798666.318330.9576
1.3487945537055e8734.8875112.87958
3.3092785251891e8831.3884494.27207
1.636933421348e71063.932611.9296

United Kingdom

StatusNumber
Population67,886,011
Confirmed24,658,705
Deaths220,721
Recovered0
Cases per head36.3237%
Deaths per 10,00032.51
Deaths per case0.8951%
Forecast peak26,075,393.997286 (-286,587,989.571494 338,738,777.566066)
Forecast deaths233,401.836734 (-2,565,259.921241 3,032,063.594709)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999991
Parameters:
ABC
89256.8319686.547617.57105
5.87266515676e6571.43964226.75026
2.13558398283e6350.6739210.93424
4.10986194694e6793.2484463.99351
1.07226252606e6542.39318.61883
983926.14815586.934210.46274
1.19761212819e6632.6328111.12562
9.43199273019e6722.7947519.18471
395127.40539901.76287.69302
1661.640121005.105292.59595
26980.0452996.022191.42235
758463.45551167.7484710.96258

Guyana

ERROR: MethodError: no method matching iterate(::Nothing)

Closest candidates are:
  iterate(!Matched::Base.MethodSpecializations)
   @ Base reflection.jl:1148
  iterate(!Matched::Base.MethodSpecializations, !Matched::Nothing)
   @ Base reflection.jl:1154
  iterate(!Matched::Base.MethodSpecializations, !Matched::Int64)
   @ Base reflection.jl:1155
  ...
StatusNumber
Population67,886,011
Confirmed24,658,705
Deaths220,721
Recovered0
Cases per head36.3237%
Deaths per 10,00032.51
Deaths per case0.8951%
Forecast peak26,075,393.997286 (-286,587,989.571494 338,738,777.566066)
Forecast deaths233,401.836734 (-2,565,259.921241 3,032,063.594709)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999991
Parameters:
ABC
89256.8319686.547617.57105
5.87266515676e6571.43964226.75026
2.13558398283e6350.6739210.93424
4.10986194694e6793.2484463.99351
1.07226252606e6542.39318.61883
983926.14815586.934210.46274
1.19761212819e6632.6328111.12562
9.43199273019e6722.7947519.18471
395127.40539901.76287.69302
1661.640121005.105292.59595
26980.0452996.022191.42235
758463.45551167.7484710.96258

Ireland

StatusNumber
Population4,937,786
Confirmed1,704,502
Deaths8,708
Recovered0
Cases per head34.5196%
Deaths per 10,00017.64
Deaths per case0.5109%
Forecast peak2,125,239.490334 (NaN NaN)
Forecast deaths10,857.473609 (NaN NaN)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999991
Parameters:
ABC
24217.4910585.34827.89735
410006.52956167154.67139604.43844
15210.72429271.935114.99516
35178.1084274.1344921.33471
64545.53353352.417132.75345
62028.71961369.980919.58541
47597.53876414.9608333.11749
16949.01425478.3439415.99453
109061.186572.2944116.60379
360098.13892677.018220.93587
411497.07564716.624665.03053
422883.50807780.4960921.9356
81312.11214896.95111.18051
23657.773971030.4017744.3287
34581.35281012.903859.63354
6414.683351078.256661.54124

Italy

ERROR: MethodError: no method matching spre(::Char)

Closest candidates are:
  spre(!Matched::Symbol)
   @ Spre C:\Users\rahol\Documents\Julia\Spre\src\Spre.jl:71
  spre(!Matched::String)
   @ Spre C:\Users\rahol\Documents\Julia\Spre\src\Spre.jl:70
  spre(!Matched::Number)
   @ Spre C:\Users\rahol\Documents\Julia\Spre\src\Spre.jl:69

Experts say Italy's situation arises from an older population and families living together

StatusNumber
Population60461826
Confirmed25603510
Deaths188322
Recovered0
Cases per head34.5196%
Deaths per 10,00017.64
Deaths per case0.5109%
Forecast peak2,125,239.490334 (NaN NaN)
Forecast deaths10,857.473609 (NaN NaN)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999991
Parameters:
ABC
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN
NaNNaNNaN

Sweden

Sweden has rejected suggestions to go for an all-out lockdown so they will provide a useful experiment for the rest of us

StatusNumber
Population10,099,265
Confirmed2,699,339
Deaths23,777
Recovered0
Cases per head26.7281%
Deaths per 10,00023.54
Deaths per case0.8808%
Forecast peak2,721,167.998444 (-7,824,569.393615 13,266,905.390504)
Forecast deaths23,969.279701 (-68,922.349683 116,860.909086)
Last case2024-04-06
$R^{2}$0.999958
Parameters:
ABC
81878.44006131.4376224.04862
73358.208611018.6914746.14748
545078.3868330.9282922.08075
485342.54623445.6340920.57774
47953.32365588.0151313.04703
68512.9609695.68379.16401
59513.26614931.4782919.51491
941606.68579736.494215.8519
6891.96542988.717051.41362
149291.76786718.661263.70256
211540.04583730.9689242.09258
50200.401151066.266598.30075

Denmark

Denmark has proposed ending the lock-down earlier than others.

StatusNumber
Population5,792,202
Confirmed3,451,036
Deaths8,345
Recovered0
Cases per head59.5807%
Deaths per 10,00014.41
Deaths per case0.2418%
Forecast peak3,451,619.740708 (1,588,572.946699 5,314,666.534718)
Forecast deaths8,346.411552 (3,841.351189 12,851.471915)
Last case2023-05-08
$R^{2}$0.999998
Parameters:
ABC
11791.7058579.6518412.20753
144473.64488319.8631532.38433
63019.42469333.040296.73274
85838.03059470.8398124.31301
48253.15998565.9252512.89259
1.66104767785e6745.2125111.3279
1.16629798393e6729.0492424.37253
150812.10131908.7680218.06642
59256.68167992.6775411.94263
60829.329961060.5714512.75921

Spain

StatusNumber
Population46,754,778
Confirmed13,770,429
Deaths119,479
Recovered0
Cases per head29.4525%
Deaths per 10,00025.55
Deaths per case0.8676%
Forecast peak13,928,001.421453 (-22,742,630.467199 50,598,633.310106)
Forecast deaths120,846.175659 (-197,326.22314 439,018.574458)
Last case2024-08-19
$R^{2}$0.999981
Parameters:
ABC
231353.6333272.203337.90436
1.47253985186e6269.2610431.66405
277200.22969288.399736.56624
1.23442083215e6368.299548.84215
649140.10088565.8168315.37543
646022.75755453.669320.71275
585605.72289545.99637.54921
73696.57223666.857255.57649
5.70473000827e6724.1422510.42643
1.03933817227e6784.4811618.01368
277238.79929831.63726.18662
765703.69355896.080339.39897
356304.90977854.979248.8383
614706.137741012.6074449.3324

Germany

Germany institued "strict social distancing" rather than lockdown

StatusNumber
Population83,783,942
Confirmed38,249,060
Deaths168,935
Recovered0
Cases per head45.6520%
Deaths per 10,00020.16
Deaths per case0.4417%
Forecast peak38,825,890.11903 (NaN NaN)
Forecast deaths171,482.691268 (NaN NaN)
Last case2024-11-23
$R^{2}$0.999990
Parameters:
ABC
148022.5725872.144536.95388
50699.18736108.5818216.12617
0.012118.5017654.88104
2.34168696586e6327.6396726.0106
1.2416173003e6451.7030915.64107
739732.03133605.9805120.23324
1.39351928032e6673.525027.60506
2.100853247799e7777.427225.28799
4.16588287865e6902.8783112.43305
1.70433274926e6995.437536.00054
6.03186467538e61013.0182748.23499

France

StatusNumber
Population65,273,511
Confirmed39,866,718
Deaths166,176
Recovered0
Cases per head61.0764%
Deaths per 10,00025.46
Deaths per case0.4168%
Forecast peak39,936,646.185676 (20,148,224.333026 59,725,068.038327)
Forecast deaths166,467.480883 (83,983.620793 248,951.340974)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999995
Parameters:
ABC
47320.4562982.079940.22607
1.83763375275e6284.4460710.0857
4.06828862159e6423.4130532.47699
1.09302664542e6569.8939411.48629
759515.63138680.291126.42496
4.65871152174e6903.5200169.07042
1.448656727872e7729.9417510.00048
5.66234887534e6802.7292710.67743
3.56557831022e6898.255878.46535
1.67163663675e6992.780518.88136
2.08601845548e61051.962579.10471

Poland

StatusNumber
Population37,846,611
Confirmed6,444,960
Deaths119,010
Recovered0
Cases per head17.0292%
Deaths per 10,00031.45
Deaths per case1.8466%
Forecast peak22,058,069.633309 (NaN NaN)
Forecast deaths407,315.30794 (NaN NaN)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999999
Parameters:
ABC
43356.22884119.9862126.21963
30224.75636206.835810.75438
49098.23942328.9783.84663
1.16772699809e6428.7034215.31253
334505.07376350.7268810.84686
1.05133254487e6294.8171610.57285
150626.24636431.888483.52048
580230.8610670841.14547141.14777
62721.34595447.611012.65139
456042.69918664.5852711.76317
819006.39934686.7971911.30378
1.505924040003e71783.71443123.30544
599872.29241771.5877413.03539
1.21925793423e6740.593166.67754
17505.75938674.104730.96399
153234.08219928.7273511.61532
162716.9435972.7994610.58873
101370.828331145.6017210.38108

Greece

Austerity means they've "crushed the curve" sooner?

StatusNumber
Population10,423,054
Confirmed5,548,487
Deaths34,779
Recovered0
Cases per head53.2328%
Deaths per 10,00033.37
Deaths per case0.6268%
Forecast peak5,583,042.534294 (NaN NaN)
Forecast deaths34,995.600837 (NaN NaN)
Last case2023-08-03
$R^{2}$0.999959
Parameters:
ABC
3108.2472371.547429.74044
13057.65253221.5751213.49265
119613.87609300.3972312.17618
272787.87342439.0647524.10878
285604.78662578.0676924.34173
0.00.0374.88309
2.02917090507e6730.7375722.77211
373841.16746910.114061.30559
1.28210310001e6915.79425.05127
619966.995611025.8050618.83555
583787.93025794.052828.69882

Australia

There's a second wave in Oz. They mingled too early

StatusNumber
Population25,499,884
Confirmed11,399,460
Deaths19,574
Recovered0
Cases per head44.7040%
Deaths per 10,0007.68
Deaths per case0.1717%
Forecast peak8,895,129.269887 (-55,201,600,794.69342 55,219,391,053.233192)
Forecast deaths15,273.816508 (-94,786,606.905531 94,817,154.538547)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999994
Parameters:
ABC
6026.6562765.589174.96281
15699.05477192.377769.09883
376.91482263.6772715.89658
0.12205333.226240.46822
15353.62912804.2413920.19355
8784.91315823.3282415.53635
35315.79547833.6851857.49633
264399.0142869.128521160.13145
82211.76691626.4500712.06049
20963.9293645.7041443.49947
2.54759867937e6727.0319210.69434
2.38040326401e6816.0645813.86671
1.334182606e6866.931315.07066
1.49856702122e6899.6059114.50052
685245.903231053.1614711.67371

New Zealand

How are things in "Brokenwood"?

StatusNumber
Population4,822,233
Confirmed2,236,114
Deaths2,550
Recovered0
Cases per head46.3709%
Deaths per 10,0005.29
Deaths per case0.1140%
Forecast peak3,033,728.809678 (NaN NaN)
Forecast deaths3,459.576956 (NaN NaN)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999980
Parameters:
ABC
1523.9477471.122544.61176
0.0957950.970621.19750951529e6
161.69459213.311535.65533
880.86215294.012455.30637
2.77312356.63442.74
428.17831435.3007922.5111
181.30179541.988636.83825
1119.73706585.210254.40142
7711.93521661.745179.7402
731698.6368237061.74746181.72147
624307.69224780.713758.27603
676622.17695829.9213120.27251
452524.68094906.8819212.99099
450957.796721049.9427235.85693
85607.396041057.874978.85531

South Korea

Pointed to as the right way to manage the epidemic.

StatusNumber
Population51,269,185
Confirmed30,615,523
Deaths34,099
Recovered0
Cases per head59.7153%
Deaths per 10,0006.65
Deaths per case0.1114%
Forecast peak38,103,083.909792 (NaN NaN)
Forecast deaths42,438.506056 (NaN NaN)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999998
Parameters:
ABC
7601.0554840.908462.83228
13735.39588428.3525818.62296
5034.95295216.665134.34957
19.70516149.784020.21085
37241.7928335.9486910.78177
5.77960997846e61161.5859152.29828
2.10956030729e61028.3336113.41231
130656.54353691.115086.68026
599500.36027761.069124.23463
157426.46617601.6920338.39229
9.35013355432e6794.5959313.39071
4.42316207208e6603851.244573000.32931
7.05954023984e6785.415777.59174
6.11179077982e6936.600112.71743
2.31807070574e61068.8371410.89005

Japan

Having a third (or fourth) wave but their fatality rate is amazingly low

StatusNumber
Population126,476,461
Confirmed33,320,438
Deaths72,997
Recovered0
Cases per head26.3452%
Deaths per 10,0005.77
Deaths per case0.2191%
Forecast peak43,361,343.518746 (NaN NaN)
Forecast deaths94,994.189237 (NaN NaN)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999998
Parameters:
ABC
14956.5958284.083497.05431
3.99850077366e6807.8378520.88282
296603.5305332.9612838.28907
132251.27017358.249247.15476
340865.80109471.9280315.36374
911508.64461577.8930110.02577
9.57950169023e6819081.584893007.3078
3.35656045892e6749.499729.96639
1.266266779412e7933.6748513.96317
1.206792695962e71065.5404418.94443

United States

StatusNumber
Population331,002,651
Confirmed103,802,702
Deaths1,123,836
Recovered0
Cases per head31.3601%
Deaths per 10,00033.95
Deaths per case1.0827%
Forecast peak104,775,672.782789 (-21,329,401.027908 230,880,746.593486)
Forecast deaths1,134,370.018591 (-230,926.057528 2,499,666.09471)
Last case2024-06-21
$R^{2}$0.999998
Parameters:
ABC
434812.6303674.255244.78205
1.07411800251e697.750710.80736
4.93539933171e6184.4485720.08855
2.393991321779e7336.4357225.99054
3.08338009096e6450.0644613.527
1.254515397181e7589.651919.047
3.6426444169e6667.2995312.02936
2.892221121889e7723.390798.90387
1.397584858363e7875.1337135.91825
4.1829574628e6928.5060219.73837
8.03923385544e61073.3461533.80908

Brazil

Well,we know people here...

StatusNumber
Population212,559,417
Confirmed37,076,053
Deaths699,276
Recovered0
Cases per head17.4427%
Deaths per 10,00032.90
Deaths per case1.8861%
Forecast peak37,074,390.790426 (11,444,791.423563 62,703,990.157289)
Forecast deaths699,244.649757 (215,855.446304 1,182,633.853211)
Last case2023-08-01
$R^{2}$0.999998
Parameters:
ABC
5.35140525393e6189.593330.72862
5.59430634743e6352.1627830.86651
2.61902567885e6426.4517614.24973
7.19997251474e6501.855228.03056
1.54666030382e6608.0360526.35114
3.19940988973e6766.8092816.20758
5.01516071524e6739.074227.54523
4.27690161044e6894.0629119.18363
2.27154847625e61061.0386815.41411

Austria

Austria has been put forward as a country that did lockdown early. Notice that this was two days before Belgium.

StatusNumber
Population9,006,398
Confirmed5,961,143
Deaths21,970
Recovered0
Cases per head66.1879%
Deaths per 10,00024.39
Deaths per case0.3686%
Forecast peak6,833,358.605879 (2,580,325.5385 11,086,391.673259)
Forecast deaths25,184.580972 (9,509.879579 40,859.282366)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999998
Parameters:
ABC
13640.615467.271664.58351
17728.69715242.002319.79474
169392.49379333.7761822.28103
197408.59559295.85298.25067
185011.81187432.5580516.37075
76250.52791616.0265716.46102
379508.06939668.43957.38302
1.45906426945e6786.401188.6996
1.22795762901e6743.941889.57762
367761.15717904.3824310.62381
263166.30961989.800956.27485
2.47646842954e61044.55983148.73062

Belgium

ERROR: MethodError: no method matching iterate(::Nothing)

Closest candidates are:
  iterate(!Matched::Base.MethodSpecializations)
   @ Base reflection.jl:1148
  iterate(!Matched::Base.MethodSpecializations, !Matched::Nothing)
   @ Base reflection.jl:1154
  iterate(!Matched::Base.MethodSpecializations, !Matched::Int64)
   @ Base reflection.jl:1155
  ...

In the news for having an alarming deaths/million inhabitants.

StatusNumber
Population9,006,398
Confirmed5,961,143
Deaths21,970
Recovered0
Cases per head66.1879%
Deaths per 10,00024.39
Deaths per case0.3686%
Forecast peak6,833,358.605879 (2,580,325.5385 11,086,391.673259)
Forecast deaths25,184.580972 (9,509.879579 40,859.282366)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999998
Parameters:
ABC
13640.615467.271664.58351
17728.69715242.002319.79474
169392.49379333.7761822.28103
197408.59559295.85298.25067
185011.81187432.5580516.37075
76250.52791616.0265716.46102
379508.06939668.43957.38302
1.45906426945e6786.401188.6996
1.22795762901e6743.941889.57762
367761.15717904.3824310.62381
263166.30961989.800956.27485
2.47646842954e61044.55983148.73062

Russia

In the news for an "alarming" rise in cases

StatusNumber
Population145,934,462
Confirmed22,075,858
Deaths388,478
Recovered0
Cases per head15.1272%
Deaths per 10,00026.62
Deaths per case1.7597%
Forecast peak22,386,242.548966 (14,880,594.495676 29,891,890.602256)
Forecast deaths393,939.96523 (261,859.973392 526,019.957067)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$1.000000
Parameters:
ABC
850895.18193131.2922.54776
3.30464670773e6327.523132.04314
1.07247867852e6545.5030317.69252
1.73842654671e6652.9116316.0511
293445.42467691.868756.96333
3.53063421671e6750.099976.69706
3.00699823801e6763.575659.8413
4.73768448036e6645.5444998.40106
2.83737708735e6963.0594413.73864
262389.698041055.8398810.66301
751266.288921129.6064614.50973

Iran

Recently in the news for having a 'second' outbreak.

StatusNumber
Population83,992,949
Confirmed7,572,311
Deaths144,933
Recovered0
Cases per head9.0154%
Deaths per 10,00017.26
Deaths per case1.9140%
Forecast peak7,570,009.694954 (5,189,256.196648 9,950,763.193259)
Forecast deaths144,888.953335 (99,321.656011 190,456.25066)
Last case2024-09-10
$R^{2}$1.000000
Parameters:
ABC
242619.07335132.5086438.50365
376368.97513759.595147.07518
2.63711943613e6442.3446184.55153
386775.99352305.8348910.13518
218724.14329448.50454.36389
2.107411688e6571.6680515.71862
503264.06722745.981934.03955
385947.46132642.624115.20539
205793.34633917.062745.76438
86947.06599938.507275.55219
353098.24428464.999278.11777
65940.2004807.007816.2188

Zambia

How they doing in Kapumbaland?

StatusNumber
Population18,383,955
Confirmed343,135
Deaths4,057
Recovered0
Cases per head1.8665%
Deaths per 10,0002.21
Deaths per case1.1823%
Forecast peak366,054.423912 (-9,880,344,000,718,410 9,880,344,001,450,514)
Forecast deaths4,327.984023 (-116,818,615,445,566.875 116,818,615,454,222.78125)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999997
Parameters:
ABC
645.67346113.228181.77107
14667.89552201.4360615.00576
57719.91758536.8218613.52279
72853.24622373.9141813.84455
59091.90028516.905446.91905
90814.3782711.129395.77663
14146.71723743.467512.48729
7223.14568795.1171120.88006
13994.68556901.1526822.89826
25448.9981615587.84101445.7392
9447.866041094.238039.2571

South Africa

Reportedly having a much lower IFR than the UK

StatusNumber
Population59,308,690
Confirmed4,067,067
Deaths102,595
Recovered0
Cases per head6.8575%
Deaths per 10,00017.30
Deaths per case2.5226%
Forecast peak4,107,708.589213 (1,651,921.350355 6,563,495.828071)
Forecast deaths103,620.216414 (41,671.029993 165,569.402835)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$0.999999
Parameters:
ABC
158095.46186752.207718.97868
545329.34232177.494711.67133
128807.75221331.679696.26409
451841.63016354.288867.15229
528953.4202575.2100211.9382
502221.14422320.7842167.67738
672979.59571529.526479.41235
278549.03726691.43994.28367
238118.08957840.392538.75084
89276.47687491.6639911.16175
348988.68429702.0929110.26811
3147.493261028.737991.48227
161400.46127970.11779124.15915

India

Having a disastrous surge in cases

StatusNumber
Population1,380,004,385
Confirmed44,690,738
Deaths530,779
Recovered0
Cases per head3.2384%
Deaths per 10,0003.85
Deaths per case1.1877%
Forecast peak54,721,353.321506 (NaN NaN)
Forecast deaths649,909.723904 (NaN NaN)
Last case2025-05-18
$R^{2}$1.000000
Parameters:
ABC
7.27709057529e6230.6134725.35476
4.12003514721e6297.2721544.40393
2.05294744821e6461.623347.03722
1.583248480748e7470.5577812.11501
5.47265963983e6566.123834.67742
8.23513816109e6730.897416.42343
9.94687019958e6312174.104532509.85533
1.18897540509e6911.8821517.25172
595151.93773907.0695354.00109

Outbreaks plotted on a World map

Marker size is proportional to the number of cases per country.

ERROR: UndefVarError: `world` not defined

Comparison with SARS

The markers are three times the size of the markers on the Coronavirus map.

ERROR: UndefVarError: `world` not defined