Coronavirus cases by local authority, England

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/downloads/csv/coronavirus-cases_latest.csv

An attempt is made to fit a multi-peak logistic model to each authority's data. Where this fails a centered 7-day moving average is plotted. The models are not invariably good but the this should be obvious from the parameter results. A good fit will produce three clean peaks for most authorities.

Regions

East Midlands East of England London North East North West South East South West West Midlands Yorkshire and The Humber

(page date 2024-02-17T11:45:20.374)

South East (region)

Components

DatesPeaks
2020-04-22616.979284
2020-02-038.712831
2021-01-039,083.629882
2020-11-062,116.674183
2021-09-214,743.031745
2022-01-0718,996.383033
2022-03-2214,631.890546
2022-07-064,452.036208
2022-04-066,059.141041
2022-10-081,630.789816
2022-11-25539.943213
2022-12-221,225.993247
2023-03-08713.877803
2023-09-25300.461552

Last day: 2024-07-31 (1640)

Final peak: 3,429,210.989173

London (region)

Components

DatesPeaks
2020-04-07825.529177
2021-01-0113,822.95866
2021-01-254,444.043337
2020-11-012,221.665814
2021-07-165,491.099484
2021-08-293,286.828941
2021-12-2529,016.361247
2022-02-078,097.625363
2022-07-063,528.454311
2022-10-07707.228532
2022-12-18656.434106
2023-03-04414.640247
2023-09-20196.697345
2023-12-09144.283328

Last day: 2024-05-31 (1579)

Final peak: 3,185,115.369817

North West (region)

Components

DatesPeaks
2020-04-24719.771357
2021-01-253,305.444594
2020-10-234,792.220474
2021-01-076,833.021734
2022-01-1313,548.117623
2021-07-085,320.168508
2021-10-124,400.623511
2022-01-0130,914.154709
2022-03-248,044.907172
2022-07-062,813.471388
2022-10-07923.422043
2022-12-13648.612
2022-12-20696.883659
2023-03-12579.544494
2023-09-24251.309236

Last day: 2024-05-22 (1571)

Final peak: 2,849,521.398667

East of England (region)

Components

DatesPeaks
2020-04-25416.780701
4672-09-090.000002
2021-01-036,992.478283
2020-12-184,181.73463
2022-01-2810,757.387939
2021-07-174,086.009828
2021-11-234,383.883465
2021-12-3017,074.890326
2022-03-219,290.357299
2022-07-072,871.49359
2022-10-07986.298253
2022-12-02395.428901
2022-12-24806.80288
2023-03-03437.13335
2023-09-27187.573606

Last day: 4712-05-12 (983331)

Final peak: 2,316,856.358165

South West (region)

Components

DatesPeaks
2020-04-24253.360074
2184-09-1345.790703
2020-11-041,509.742195
2021-01-093,112.005901
2021-10-303,924.346638
2022-01-149,990.573674
2022-03-2210,817.16182
2022-07-062,904.81838
2022-10-07975.052854
2022-12-20963.93896
2023-03-07417.208028
2023-09-23221.714973

Last day: 2211-01-28 (69755)

Final peak: 2,174,470.894606

East Midlands (region)

Components

DatesPeaks
2020-05-11258.282697
2020-10-302,261.751239
2021-01-132,855.562584
2021-07-153,872.62849
2021-08-102,497.064659
2021-10-173,492.114923
2022-01-0511,766.351534
2022-03-235,475.202941
2022-07-061,753.787288
2022-10-07829.79291
2022-12-19518.349159
2023-03-10340.988012
2023-09-27190.495616

Last day: 2024-04-24 (1524)

Final peak: 1,776,976.84527

Yorkshire and The Humber (region)

Components

DatesPeaks
2020-05-04427.143072
2021-02-141,260.568573
2020-10-313,592.483586
2021-01-062,564.847932
2021-07-134,869.265549
2021-07-293,113.853982
2021-10-223,493.181146
2021-12-3117,628.430868
2022-01-0521,439.41487
2022-01-209,446.431717
2022-03-255,796.912242
2022-07-071,865.111936
2022-10-06856.779161
2022-12-20455.279787
2023-03-09427.204255
2023-09-24197.947293

Last day: 2024-04-22 (1544)

Final peak: 2,018,545.507111

North East (region)

Components

DatesPeaks
2020-04-22320.216504
2020-03-0218.39687
2020-10-271,436.161556
2021-01-121,458.921466
2021-07-123,781.957841
2021-12-132,246.288634
2027-09-170
2022-01-0611,333.480273
2022-03-263,237.451424
2022-07-071,061.668405
2022-10-08410.83406
2022-12-15201.263702
2023-01-02234.326988
2023-03-05223.446221
2023-09-24108.477647

Last day: 2622-02-26 (219871)

Final peak: 1,065,967.152443

West Midlands (region)

Components

DatesPeaks
2020-04-22435.888671
2020-11-052,894.5748
2021-01-115,146.133267
2021-07-154,765.462079
2022-07-151,985.020138
2021-10-303,803.467929
2022-01-0218,713.713716
2022-03-246,601.672698
2022-07-072,319.393882
2022-01-2510,160.0272
2022-10-08947.157771
2020-02-1217.082541
2022-12-22602.176545
2023-03-13406.822702
2023-09-28236.531475

Last day: 2026-01-08 (2157)

Final peak: 2,139,678.043878